Cranberger is a Trademark operating under the Lithuanian registered legal entity Rox Capital UAB. We provide a Database and perform unbiased analytics of Exchange Traded Products, and facilitate a Community for Qualified Investment Professionals, with the aim of delivering continues Value-Added.
The Platform is founded, funded and fueled by:
Johnni Nielsen, is a 42 year old Danish National, currently living with his family in Vilnius Lithuania.
Johnni is seasoned Entrepreneur and Investor with a top-down, bottom-up Global Macro type perspective on investing.
He believe sustainable portfolio management centers around prudent diversification and risk budgeting.
The technical part is supervised by:
Gediminas Mazrimas is an IT Professional with focus on business.
Combining professional experience gained in one of the biggest banks in the world with the software engineering past allowed him to come up with technical solution ideal for this financial investments platform.
Marketing and client relations carried out by:
Rasa Jaskeleviciute, having a background in Finance and Banking as well as post graduate Marketing degree.
Her nearly 10 years of experience in financial investment field as well as several years of marketing strategist carrier has enabled her to be an effective and beneficial team member.
The single greatest misperception we encounter with clients, and many advisors as well, is the idea that material diversification can be achieved with a large number of individual stocks or stock mutual funds. Not only is this untrue, but it’s less true now than ever because of high average stock correlations within and across markets.
Any analysis that relies on the past to offer guidance about the future makes the strong assumption that the future will in fact resemble the past. We have no guarantee that this will be the case. Many optimistic analysts assert that the invention of central banking, global communications and trade, robotics, 3D printing, Paul Krugman, or any number of ‘game changers’ that have evolved over the past few decades renders comparisons with our past misguided.
Everywhere you turn, you are bombarded with 1, 3, and 5 year track records for investment products. The investment management industry knows that you are influenced by percent symbols preceded by large numbers, so they market products with the best 1, 3 and 5 year track records, prominently featuring them in newspaper and TV advertisements, knowing that you will be unable to resist the urge to chase into those funds to avoid missing another year of riches.
Risk Parity seems to have (temporarily?) lost its place near the top of the institutional asset allocation wish list, no doubt because it proved vulnerable to policy shocks during last year’s central bank equivocation. Nevertheless we continue to believe the concept is valuable if thoughtfully applied.
At GestaltU we see ourselves as incrementalists. We aren’t so much prone to true quantum leaps in thinking, but we excel at finding novel ways to apply others’ brilliant concepts. In other words, we appreciate the fact that, for the most part, we ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’.
We’ve been spending a lot of time recently discussing the quality of investment modeling, and the reliability of back-tests. Specifically, we covered multiple discovery and degrees of freedom as two compelling reasons for out-of-sample performance decay. Both of these sources of decay relate to the model itself.
We’ve been discussing sources of performance decay, degrees of freedom, and the implied statistical significance of systematic trading strategies, so I was pleased when some recent articles triggered an idea for a related case study.